The CRTx® Aggregate Index turned in a +1.50% return for November, rallying in kind with the risk-on moves in equities and fixed income. CRT underperformed broader markets for the month though, as the belly/long end of the curve rallied significantly off October highs, causing duration to win the month. CRT credit curve bull-flattening and the latest STACR tender combined for complex-wide positive returns. The Index YTD is up 16.02% with one month to go in 2023, still tracking at a record annual return pace.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index eked out a +0.49% return in October, the 7th straight positive month in a row. Curve “bear un-inverting”, volatility, and broad-based spread widening roiled markets, and GSE CRT returned below carry. The sector on whole still outperformed rates and IG/HY, buoyed by substantial coupon carry and the latest CAS tender premiums. The Index has now returned 14.31% for 2023 YTD, still tracking at a record annual total return pace.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index returned +1.10% for
September, the sixth straight positive month in a
row. Overall spread firming, substantial carry,
tight supply technicals, and a lift from STACR
tender premiums helped GSE CRT outperform
broader fixed income sectors as a higher, flatter
curve battered rates and corporate credit. The
Index finished Q3 up +4.19% and has returned
13.76% for the year so far, the highest YTD return
through Q3 in Index history.

The CRTx® Aggregate index posted a +0.70% total return for August, less than carry, but made for a 5th positive monthly gain in a row. Despite a softening in recent-issue spreads, CRT edged out broader markets as net-higher rates in the belly and long end of the Treasury curve dented rates and corporates, while equities were on a downtrend throughout the month. The sector is still outperforming rates and IG/HY, with the CRTx® AGG so far gaining 3.06% QTD and 12.52% YTD.

Mark Fontanilla & Co., LLC (MF & Co) announced today the launch of its advanced index analytics digital platform, the CRTx® Index Portal, for the company’s flagship CRTx® (Credit Risk Transfer Return Tracking Index) Index Suite. With this new portal, the company is also adding index variations to its comprehensive CRTx® bond index family, in addition to introducing a flat fee structure for benchmark index licensing.

The CRTx® Aggregate index posted a 2.34% total return in July, the 4th straight winning month in a row. A bull flattening credit curve, on top of substantial floater carry, continued to buoy GSE CRT returns for the month amid rallying equities and mixed performance across the broader fixed income market. YTD, the sector is outperforming rates and IG/HY, with the CRTx® AGG gaining 11.73% so far, as the GSE CRT market reaches its 10-year anniversary.

The CRTx® Aggregate index posted a 3rd straight month of gains, returning 1.65% in June. With the Fed pausing rate hikes, but the belly of the curve rising/inverting more, credit curves bull-flattened and CRT outperformed rates and IG, while performing in context with HY. For Q2, the CRTx® AGG finished up 5.16% on substantial carry, tenders, and supportive supply technicals.

For the 2nd month in a row, the CRTx® Aggregate index finished in positive territory, posting a 1.33% total return for May. Amidst debt ceiling volatility and higher rates, CRT spreads largely firmed MoM and the sector outperformed most broad stock and fixed rate bond segments which saw red in May, save for tech. YTD, the CRTx® AGG is now up 7.42% as substantial carry, tenders, supportive supply technicals, and favorable mortgage credit still buoys the sector.

The CRTx® Aggregate index gained 2.11% in April, rebounding from last month’s bank-stress induced decline. GSE CRT rallied in kind with the overall moves in equity and fixed income markets as medium/long term Treasury yields fell and overall credit spreads firmed. YTD, the CRTx® AGG is up 6.01%, outperforming broader rates and IG/HY benchmarks on the back of higher coupon carry and supportive supply technicals.

Information Management Network (IMN) 2023 Annual Investors' Conference On Risk Transfer advisory board guides the content production, including speaker acquisition, and ensures a cutting edge, timely, and educational program for all attendees.

The CRTx® Aggregate lost ground in March, posting a -0.17% monthly total return amidst the prevailing bank-related market stress. Broader equity and fixed income markets saw wide trend swings and heightened volatility throughout the month, but the curve eventually “deflated” back down towards January levels, and stocks and fixed rates net rallied for March after a mid-month sell-off, despite widening credit spreads. For Q1/YTD, the CRTx® AGG is up 3.82%, still edging out broader rates and IG/HY benchmarks for the year so far.

The CRTx® Aggregate posted a 1.53% total return for February, the 4th month in row of positive gains for the index. Benchmark GSE CRT was able to run counter to the red seen in broader markets over the month as a higher, more inverted curve helped ravage stocks and fixed rates, while the latest STACR tender, bull-flattening of the credit curve, and a negative supply technical helped buoy CRT sector performance.

The CRTx® Aggregate starts 2023 in kind with the broad bond/stock market rallies, surging 2.43% in January as the curve bull flattened/inverted MoM even more, and spreads across most sectors followed tighter. Gains were seen across virtually the entire the CRT complex, with newer 2021/2022 deal vintages leading the way.

The CRTx® Aggregate turned in a strong finish to the year, gaining 2.09% MoM in December, and closed out Q4 returning 1.68% QoQ. For full-year 2022, the Index eked out a positive 0.49% total return; well below carry, but much better than the broader fixed rate benchmarks that were hit harder by significantly higher rates and extraordinary volatility. Within the CRT complex though, annual performance was mixed as newer issues, especially B tranche variants, ended in the red YTD while seasoned paper made out much better.

Conference Panel: The Search for Yield in ABS - Issuance Patterns and Issuer Alternatives, Fundamentals And Credit Performance, Technicals And Relative Value, and Market Outlook.

The CRTx® Aggregate posted a 0.61% gain in November, ending a significant 2-month losing streak as most fixed income and equity markets rebounded off recent lows throughout the month. CRT underperformed major bond sectors as a lower belly/long end of the curve boosted fixed rates, especially longer-duration IG and MBS. Intra-complex, the top/middle of the capital structure and newer issues led gains, but YTD the standard CRTx® Aggregate is still down -1.57%, while the CRTx® RNI™ (Rolling New Issues) Aggregate is at -5.34% with one month to go in the year.

Conference panel: Manager/Investor Roundtable
A discussion of the key topics impacting both issuers and investors such as: how they balance their respective needs and wants; trends in underwriting/acquisition and risk/portfolio management in the current volatile environment; and current liquidity, pricing, and risk/reward differentials for BSL vs. MM CLOs. As well as an examination of the evolution of the MM CLO investor base and borrowing sector diversification trends and outlook.

Structured Credit Investor (SCI) 2022 Middle Market CLO awards advisory board provided invaluable input in the selection process, with final selections for the awards made by the SCI editorial team, based on the pitches received, colour from other market participants and SCI's own independent reporting.

The CRTx® Aggregate fell for the 2nd month in a row, posting a -1.01% total return for October, with red seen across most of the CRT complex as even higher rates and vol weighed heavily on fixed income markets, especially rates, IG, and structured finance sectors. The latest STACR tender offer helped soften the blow somewhat, but YTD, the standard total market CRTx® Aggregate has now returned -2.17%, while the CRTx® RNI™ (Rolling New Issues) Aggregate is now -6.37% for the year.

Conference Panel: Market Outlook for GSE CRT - What is the expected issuance volume for GSE CRT transactions for 2023 and beyond? And what are the drivers of strategy for the GSE’s? How are current GSE programs performing? Have there been any significant structural changes or developments? What operational and supervisory changes can be expected for the GSEs in the near future and are these expected to impact their approach to CRT? Resulting impacts on CRT following the FHFA case ruling. Risk profile across new credit protection bonds purchased by GSEs as a result of revised capital rules. Impact of GSE reform, lender regulation and affordable housing initiatives

September saw the CRTx® Aggregate stumble in kind with the broader markets, returning -1.03% MoM as fixed income and equities were thoroughly roiled by higher rates, wider spreads, rising volatility, and a resolute Fed. For Q3 though, the CRTx® still managed to end positively, finishing up 2.42% with some help from significant July/August tender premiums. YTD, the standard total market CRTx® Aggregate is down 1.17%, while the CRTx® RNI™ (Rolling New Issues) Aggregate has returned -5.49%.

The CRTx® Aggregate gained a substantial 3.21% in August, the 2nd positive month in a row, as the Index continues to recover from the 2022 lows hit in mid-July. With the curve “tsunami twisting”, CRT solidly outperformed major fixed income asset classes as rates and IG/HY suffered from higher MoM Rates, and equities moved net-lower for August.

The CRTx® Aggregate gained 0.27% in July, ending a 2-month losing streak, but returning below sector composite carry. With the curve bull flattening/inverting and major asset class spreads tightening, CRT soundly underperformed rates and IG/HY for the month, although CRT finished July on an upswing.

The CRTx® Aggregate lost 0.98% MoM in June, and finished Q2 down 1.57%. A range of headwinds, including ongoing inflation/recession fears, a bear flattening curve, wider credit spreads, and subdued liquidity drove widespread bond and stock market losses. Collectively, the CRT complex still manages be the “least worst”, edging out other major sectors so far this year, albeit from the negative side.

Heightened volatility persisted in May and the CRTx® Aggregate lost 1.03% for the month, making it 3 out 5 months YTD the Index finished in the red. With a myriad of domestic and geopolitical issues continuing to press on markets, CRT underperformed the major fixed income sectors...

Conference Panel: Macroeconomics and Risk Transfer Market Overview - Macroeconomic and Geopolitical risk factors, and their effect on the USK Risk Transfer market; War, Inflation, Rate Hikes, Pandemic Recovery, Supply Chain and Labor Pressure; Review of 2021 and 22H1 performance and a 22H2 forecast – Outlook for issuance and performance per sector and geography; Market technical and fundamental trends; Credit performance trends and relative value for Risk Transfer; U.S. banks use of risk transfer (methods, structures) to address their capital requirements.

The CRTx® Aggregate managed to gain 0.44% in April, ending a 2-month losing streak, as the Fed, inflation, and war continued to weigh on markets. Overall, CRT outperformed major fixed income sectors with the curve up 40-50bps and IG/HY spreads wider, while CRT coupon resets rose. Intra-complex, performance improved from last month’s declines as CRT steadied somewhat on firmer new issue spreads vs. the March wides, and net supply remained high.

Conference Panel: Mortgage Risk Transfer - The GSE credit risk transfer market has been subject to a great many changes lately. This panel looks at the Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework, the amendments to it, and what it all means for capital treatment of CRT transactions. It also examines blossoming new issue volume, changes in the mandate of the FHFA and latest developments in the mortgage insurance linked note market.

As the Ukraine/Russia conflict raged on and the curve continued to bear-flatten, the CRTx® Aggregate posted a -1.04% decline in March, the 2nd negative month in a row. For Q1/YTD, the Index closed down 1.96% as most major bond and stock market aggregates also finished Q1 well in the red. On top of the CRT credit curve widening, March concluded Q1’s record pace for benchmark GSE CRT issuance, which brought commensurate supply pressures.

MF&Co's founder Mark Fontanilla has been appointed to the Information Management Network (IMN) 2022 U.S. Risk Transfer Advisory Board, which makes expert recommendations regarding IMN's annual Investor's Conference on U.S. Risk Transfer. This well-regarded industry event covers important topics on the risk transfer markets for U.S. assets, including GSE CRT, U.S. bank balance sheet management, mortgage insurance and reinsurance, catastrophic insurance and reinsurance relating to real estate assets, and consumer risk transfer.

Global markets swooned as the Ukraine/Russia conflict unfolded through February. With the turmoil, the CRTx® Aggregate lost 1.00%, the worst monthly total return (besides the beginning of the COVID onset) since Feb. 2016. As equity and fixed income markets were seeing red, the CRT credit curve moved markedly wider amidst a record month for benchmark GSE CRT issuance.

The CRTx® Aggregate index managed to eke out a 0.06% return for Jan. amid a higher/bear flatter curve, wider credit spreads, and both bond and stock market aggregates finishing Jan. well in the red. While CRT in mass nominally outperformed other markets, intra-complex was mixed, with more recent-issue B classes providing most of the drag, while seasoned issues held in much better.

The CRTx® Aggregate index ended December up 0.30% for the month, 0.63% to end Q4, and closed out 2021 with a 5.86% total return. In a reversal of 2020, the CRTx® AGG outperformed other major rates and credit sector benchmarks YTD as a 60+bps higher curve overwhelmed 2021’s firmer credit spreads, save for HY, which performed comparably to, but in the end still lagged, CRT.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index posted a +0.15% gain for November, as vol moved increasingly higher and credit spreads widened. For Q4 so far, the CRTx® is up 0.33%, and YTD up 5.54%, continuing to outperform major rates and corporate credit sectors that have been affected by net-higher 2021 rates. Credit/deal performance is still trending positively, although the CRT credit curve bear-steepened again. Gross supply has been brisk in Q4 (2nd highest qtr. volume in history), but net supply is down YTD in large part from tender activity.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index posted a +0.18% gain for October, returning below effective carry as credit curves bear-steepened while the yield curve bear-flattened. YTD the Index is up 5.39%, still outperforming other rates and corporate credit sectors, as FNMA/CAS returned to the market and FHLMC/STACR also printed in October, making for the biggest benchmark GSE CRT issuance month of the year at ~$2.7B.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index gained 0.55% in September, and finished Q3 up 1.08%, outperforming other bond sector benchmarks as the curve moved higher/steeper and corporate credit spreads inched wider in Q3. FHLMC’s tender offer, FNMA’s return plan, and the latest STACR deal made for an eventful month in CRT.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index finished August gaining 0.25%, outpacing most other major fixed income sector benchmarks MoM, save for HY, as the curve moderately bear steepened. YTD, benchmark GSE CRT is still outperforming rates and IG/HY as markets head towards summer’s end.

The CRTx® Aggregate started Q3 up 0.29% for July, lagging major fixed income sector benchmarks that were buoyed by July’s lower/flatter curve. The CRTx®’s 4.37% YTD gain still outpaces aggregate rates/corporate return benchmarks so far for 2021.

The CRT credit curve continued to bull-flatten as recent-issue SUBs (Bs) drove the majority of June’s CRTx® AGG 0.68% gain. The Index ended Q2 up 2.45%, and up 4.07% YTD.

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla will be speaking alongside other industry experts on the "Middle Market CLO" panel at SCI's 1st Annual CLO Special Opportunities Seminar 2021.

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla will be speaking alongside other market professionals on the "CRT Trading and Analytics" panel at the IMN Virtual Investor Conference on Risk Transfer.

The CRTx® Aggregate finished May up 0.51% MoM, so far returning 1.76% QTD, and 3.37% YTD. An incrementally flatter CRT credit curve, gently better credit/structure risk metrics, and continually supportive technicals helped extend the CRTx® win streak to 2 months in a row of positive total returns.

The CRTx® Aggregate posted its best monthly return of the year, ending April up 1.25% MoM, and reversing March’s volatility-led decline. A flattening of the CRT credit curve, improving credit/structure performance, and supportive technicals helped the CRT sector rebound from March.

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla will be speaking on "What A Difference a Year Makes: Mortgage CRT In The Time of COVID" at SCI's 5th Annual Risk Transfer & Synthetics Seminar 2021.

The CRTx® Aggregate returned -0.18% in March, breaking a 7-month positive return streak as demand was volatile, new-issue spreads widened, and cross-asset credit yields had moved relatively cheaper. The CRT market still ultimately outperformed most other major fixed income sectors MTD/QTD/YTD, closing Q1 up 1.61%, as a higher/steeper curve continued to pressure rates and IG/HY. The CRTx® Aggregate Index basket for April starts at $48.76 billion in market value across 236 constituents from 97 deals.

SCI 3/5/2021: Middle Market Opportunities: MM CLOs still offer relative value and continued innovation...“MM CLOs are positioned favourably against broader credit, according to Mark Fontanilla, founder of Mark Fontanilla & Co……

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla speaks with Al Yoon on DebtWire's "ABS In Mind" podcast series regarding the latest CRTx® index performance and relative value in the CRT sector.

The CRTx® Aggregate ended February up 0.59% MoM, extending its positive monthly return streak to 7 months in a row, and has returned 1.80% YTD. The CRT market continues to outperform major rates and corporate credit sectors this year, despite IG/HY tightening, as the curve moved markedly higher and the 2s/10s spread bear-steepened another 30bps. The CRTx® Aggregate Index basket for March starts at $48.86 billion in market value across 235 constituents from 95 deals.

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla will be speaking alongside other industry experts on the "Trading Opportunities Roundtable: MM CLO secondary market relative value explored" panel at SCI's 2nd Annual Middle Market CLO Seminar 2021.

The CRTx® Aggregate opened 2021 up 1.20% MoM for January, nearly identical to the pre-COVID 1.21% total return from 2020’s opening month one year ago. CRT outperformed other major rates and corporate credit sectors as the curve bear steepened ~20bps. Generally firmer spreads across the CRT complex, a flattening of the credit curve, along with better new-issue pricing from the 1st STACR deal of the year, helped buoy the CRT sector last month. The CRTx® Aggregate Index February basket starts at $48.3 billion in market value across 232 constituents.

MF&Co's chief strategist Mark Fontanilla will be speaking alongside other industry experts on the "CLO Market Update Roundtable– US" panel at Opal Group's Global ABS and Structured Finance Summit 2021.

Bloomberg 1/22/2021: Normally Trouble, Refinancings Are Boosting Some Mortgage Bonds - "When homeowners refinance their mortgages, bond investors often get hurt, but a small corner of the debt market is ironically benefiting from it.....The “supplemental subordinate reduction amount,” which was added to entice potential investors, makes it so payments can pick up even if delinquencies remain high, according to Mark Fontanilla, whose eponymous company created the CRTx Credit Risk Transfer Return Tracking Index. In these deals, once an existing CRT’s size is big enough compared with the unpaid balance of its reference pool, principal payments will resume despite any failed delinquency tests....."

The CRTx® Aggregate finished 2020 strong, ending December up 1.91% MoM, and Q4 positive by 4.16%, while closing out the year with a relatively modest, but meaningful 2.26% YTD total return. The COVID-19 pandemic’s extraordinary stress on the CRT market in Q1, where the CRTx® Aggregate lost nearly 25%, and the sector’s subsequent recovery, lagged other rates and credit sectors substantially, but the rebound in market values, credit performance, issuance, and market technicals all helped benchmark GSE CRT end 2020 on a number of positive notes. The CRTx® Aggregate Index starts 2021 at $47.7 billion in market value (vs $49.7 billion at the beginning of January) across 230 constituents.

SCI 11/24/2020 - Structured Credit Investor announced its SCI Capital Relief Trades Awards 2020 Roll of Honour, and Mark Fontanilla & Company was named "Analytics Firm of The Year".

The CRTx® Aggregate finished October up 0.68% for the month, once again outpacing most other major market benchmarks month over month as equities net declined and the curve bear steepened. October’s CRT market values generally improved overall as sector volatility stayed contained amidst rate volatility edging up and the curve bear steepening. The latest reference pool DQ figures came in generally improved in aggregate, although a few deals ticked up in the October statements. The latest STACR 2020-DNA5 deal enters the CRTx® November basket, which will start out at $45.57 billion in constituent market value, an increase of 1.6% over the October basket.

Bloomberg 10/26/2020: A $50 Billion Housing Bond Market Is Stuck in Regulatory Limbo - "A $50 billion bond market once heralded as the future of housing finance has been stuck in limbo since the start of the coronavirus crisis, and now proposed regulatory changes have left investors worrying that they might be left holding the bag.....At issue are so-called credit-risk-transfer securities offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are tied to Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage-backed securities and pay investors principal and interest as long as the borrowers don’t default. CRT bonds have a market capitalization of about $45 billion, according to data from market research firm Mark Fontanilla & Co....."

The CRTx® Aggregate Index ended September up 1.11% for the month, outpacing most other major fixed income sectors. For Q3, the Index gained 2.41%, lagging only HY for the quarter. September’s CRT market values were modestly improved as volatility remained lower and the latest reference pool credit performances came in largely contained, albeit at persistently elevated levels. With the latest STACR 2020-HQA4 deal printing, the CRTx® October basket will start out at $44.87 billion, net little changed from September’s constituency.

The CRTx® Aggregate Index posted a solid 1.69% total return in August, recouping July’s  -0.39% decline and then some. Index gains were led primarily by a surge in the earliest-vintage fixed severity deals, and overall firmer spreads for Lower Mezzanines across the board. CRT outperformed the major fixed income sectors for the month as the curve bear-steepened, but CRT sits at -2.89% YTD, still well behind rates and IG/HY for 2020 so far.